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dc.creatorLalić, Branislava
dc.creatorSremac, A.Firanj
dc.creatorEitzinger, Josef
dc.creatorStričević, Ružica
dc.creatorThaler, S.
dc.creatorMaksimović, I
dc.creatorDanicić, M.
dc.creatorPerisić, D.
dc.creatorDekić, Lj
dc.date.accessioned2020-12-17T22:15:05Z
dc.date.available2020-12-17T22:15:05Z
dc.date.issued2018
dc.identifier.issn0021-8596
dc.identifier.urihttp://aspace.agrif.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/4684
dc.description.abstractA probabilistic crop forecast based on ensembles of crop model output estimates, presented here, offers an ensemble of possible realizations and probabilistic forecasts of green water components, crop yield and green water footprints (WFs) on seasonal scales for selected summer crops. The present paper presents results of an ongoing study related to the application of ensemble forecasting concepts in crop production. Seasonal forecasting of crop water use indicators (evapotranspiration (ET), water productivity, green WF) and yield of rainfed summer crops (maize, spring barley and sunflower), was performed using the AquaCrop model and ensemble weather forecast, provided by The European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast. The ensemble of estimates obtained was tested with observation-based simulations to assess the ability of seasonal weather forecasts to ensure that accuracy of the simulation results was the same as for those obtained using observed weather data. Best results are obtained for ensemble forecast for yield, ET, water productivity and green WF for sunflower in Novi Sad (Serbia) and maize in Gross-Enzersdorf (Austria) - average root mean square error (2006-2014) was lt 10% of observation-based values of selected variables. For variables yielding a probability distribution, capacity to reflect the distribution from which their outcomes will be drawn was tested using an Ignorance score. Average Ignorance score, for all locations, crops and variables varied from 1.49 (spring barley ET in Gross-Enzersdorf) to 3.35 (sunflower water productivity in Gross-Enzersdorf).en
dc.publisherCambridge Univ Press, New York
dc.relationinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/691998/EU//
dc.relationinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/MESTD/Integrated and Interdisciplinary Research (IIR or III)/43007/RS//
dc.relationinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/MESTD/Technological Development (TD or TR)/37005/RS//
dc.rightsopenAccess
dc.sourceJournal of Agricultural Science
dc.subjectEnsembles of crop model output estimatesen
dc.subjectgreen wateren
dc.subjectseasonal weather forecasten
dc.subjectstaple food cropsen
dc.subjectwater footprinten
dc.titleSeasonal forecasting of green water components and crop yield of summer crops in Serbia and Austriaen
dc.typearticle
dc.rights.licenseARR
dc.citation.epage672
dc.citation.issue5
dc.citation.other156(5): 658-672
dc.citation.rankM22
dc.citation.spage658
dc.citation.volume156
dc.identifier.doi10.1017/S0021859618000047
dc.identifier.fulltexthttp://aspace.agrif.bg.ac.rs/bitstream/id/3208/4681.pdf
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85058640731
dc.identifier.pmid30369629
dc.identifier.wos000458503500007
dc.type.versionpublishedVersion


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