Modeling of structure of changes in wine consumption by Markov's discrete model

Abstract

The market needs constant investigation in order to contribute to timely and correct decision making. It was found that the production structure needs, changes considering the changing needs, desires and habits of the consumers provoked by various factors. Based on the data over the past 30 years and using Markov's model changes in wine consumption were estimated and wine consumption for the following year was forecasted. Beer consumers were found to be the most stable group were as the most prominent changes were noted in brandy consumers. These results may be of major importance to managers in cases when numerous factors affect the wine market, decreasing business risk and eventually increasing income.

Na osnovu agregiranih vremenskih serija (1968-1999 god.) o potrošnji vina u Srbiji, u ovom radu se ocenjuju prelazne verovatnoće diskretnog modela Markova. Za izračunate vrednosti prati se verovatnoća da određen deo potrošača prihvati drugi proizvod (u ovom slučaju pivo, rakiju ili ostale vrste alkoholnih pića). Modeliranjem strukture potrošnje dolazi se do zaključaka koji daju smernice ka poboljšawu proizvodnih rezultata preduzeća donošenjem pravilnih odluka o izboru proizvodnog programa.