Climate change impact on grape growing in Serbia

Abstract

Serbian grape growing and fruit production in general is mostly based on relatively small-scale farms with localized terrain and climate features. Climate change analysis and impact studies significantly contribute to the future strategic planning in economic development, and thereby must be done with high level of confidence, which considers cooperative work of the climate research and user community. During the last decade, climate change research in Serbia progressed in accordance with the latest global climate research topics and available computer resources, which are unconditional priority for the quality of the initial data. In this paper are presented latest results of the high-resolution regional climate model simulation, using NMMB model forced with RCP8.5 IPCC scenario (2013). Model bias correction is done for the purpose of their use in impact studies in Serbia. Outcome of the data treatment for model bias reduction is creating a database of the high-resolution daily climate simulation data for the 21st century available for further use in agriculture as well as in other sectors of economy. Usefulness of these data is demonstrated with analysis of the basic climate indices change during the 21st century, which provides assessment of the heat and water availability change, shift in the growing season dates, and risk of the temperature extremes.