Application of AquaCrop model for yield and irrigation requirement estimation of sugar beet under climate change conditions in Serbia

Abstract

Climate change impact on field production may play a great role in strategic planning on soil and water resources management. Therefore, the aim of this work was to find out the impact of climate change on sugar beet yield, irrigation depth variation and water saving practices. AquaCrop model v.4.0 was used for yield and irrigation requirement estimation. Input data for future climatic parameters were obtained from EBU-POM for four scenarios A1B, A2, A1B* and A* (* >CO2), and periods of observation were first (2010-2039); second (2040-2069), and third (2070-2099). Undoubtedly, yield will not be reduced in the first period by any scenario, on the contrary, it might be increased. In the second period, yield reduction was observed in A1B i A2 scenarios, hence without the increment of CO2 in the Vojvodina region, whereas in Central Serbia, yield reduction might be expected even in scenarios of A1B and A2*. Irrigation could ensure yield increment in both regions, provided that an increase is more considerable in Central Serbia, due to lower soil water capacity. Application of optimal irrigation depth yield could be increased by up to 57-97% in Vojvodina and 77-285% in Central Serbia. Lower values are obtained in the first period and the highest in the third period. Applying deficit irrigation, water saving would reduce yield in scenario A2, otherwise to obtain high yield, irrigation depth of 300-500 mm should be ensured in Central Serbia. In the same scenario, 300-420 mm of water for irrigation is needed in Vojvodina, but its water savings could be 80-120 mm, or 20%. In scenario A1B, to obtain high yield, 80 mm could be saved in both regions.

Uticaj klimatskih promena na proizvodnju hrane je od velikog značaja za strateško planiranje upravljanja prirodnim resursima, pre svega vode i zemljišta. Stoga je cilj ovoga rada bio da se proceni kako klimatske promene mogu uticati na prinose šećerne repe, norme navodnjavanja i mogućnosti uštede vode za navodnjavanje. Za simulaciju prinosa i potreba useva za vodom korišćen je model AquaCrop i rezultati povezanog regionalnog klimatskog modela za atmosferu i okean EBU-POM za scenarija A1B, A2 za prvi period (2010-2039); drugi (2040-2069) i treći (2070-2099). U scenarijima sa oznakom A1B* i A2* su u modelu AquaCrop uzete povećane koncentracije CO2. Na područjima Vojvodine i centralne Srbije se jasno vidi da se u prvom periodu neće smanjiti prinosi ni po jednom scenariju, već se mogu očekivati i povećanja po svim varijantama gajenja šećerne repe. U drugom periodu, uočavaju se padovi prinosa u scenarijima A1B i A2 na području Vojvodine, dok se u centralnoj Srbiji može očekivati i pad prinosa u scenariju A1B kao i u scenariju A2*. Navodnjavanjem se u svim scenarijima značajno povećava prinos, s tim što je povećanje prinosa izraženije na području centralne Srbije. Ukoliko bi se koristile optimalne norme navodnjavanja prinos bi mogao da se poveća od 57-97% u Vojvodini i 77-285% u centralnoj Srbiji. Uticaj navodnjavanja na povećanje prinosa je najmanji u prvom periodu i on linearno raste u drugom i trećem periodu. U uslovima redukovanog navodnjavanja u scenariju A2, na području centralne Srbije voda bi mogla da se uštedi samo na račun pada prinosa. Za postizanje visokih prinosa, neophodno je obezbediti od 300 do 500 mm vode, a na području Vojvodine od 300 do 420 mm, s mogućnošću uštede za oko 20%. Pri scenariju A1B bi se moglo uštedeti do 80 mm na oba područja.