Competitiveness and potentials of Serbian agricultural foreign trade

Abstract

Considerations of the export potential of the agrarian complex (as an economic subsystem of pre-farming, farming, and post-farming activities) and the place it occupies in the national economic structure are most frequently reduced to an analysis of the movement of the volume and structure of export and import, i.e. the balance of the foreign trade of agricultural products. Given the specific nature of agricultural production, the subject matter of the paper is the agricultural products and foodstuff, i.e. the entire commodity sectors or only certain subsectors (according to the international classification) into which products of agricultural origin are classified. On the other hand, the analysis also includes agrarian inputs (equipment, pesticides, and fertilizers), which can be identified as products intended for agriculture. By exploring the structural significance of the agri-food sector in Serbian economy, this paper analyzes the basic characteristics of foreign trade exchange, in particular the sectoral dynamics and changes in the volume and structure of agrarian export. This is the basis on which the internal competitiveness of certain commodity sectors is established, export potentials are identified, and opportunity costs of Serbian agricultural foreign trade are indicated by means of a targeted comparative analysis of several annual series of data (2005-2011) using specific methods of analysis of the total and intra-agrarian relative coverage of import by export (coefficient calculation and ranking).

Razmatranje izvoznog potencijala agrokompleksa (kao privrednog sub-sistema predfarmskih, farmskih i postfarmskih delatnosti) i njegovog mesta u nacionalnoj ekonomskoj strukturi, najčešće se svodi na analizu kretanja obima i strukture izvoza i uvoza, odnosno saldo-bilansa spoljne trgovine poljoprivrednih proizvoda. S obzirom na specifičnosti agrarne proizvodnje, predmet analize ovde su poljoprivredni i prehrambeni proizvodi, odnosno celi robni sektori ili pak samo neki odseci (prema međunarodnoj klasifikaciji) u koje su razvrstani proizvodi poljoprivednog porekla. S druge strane, analiza obuhvata i agrarne inpute (opremu, pesticide i đubriva) koji se mogu identifikovati kao proizvodi namenjeni poljoprivredi. Sagledavajući strukturni značaj agroprehrambenog sektora u srpskoj ekonomiji, u radu se analiziraju osnovna obeležja spoljnotrgovinske razmene, posebno sektorska dinamika i promene obima i strukture agrarnog izvoza. Na toj osnovi se, ciljnom komparativnom analizom višegodišnjih serija podataka (2005-2011), koristeći specifične metode analize ukupne i intraagrarne relativne pokrivenosti uvoza izvozom (izračunavanjem koeficijenata i rangiranjem), utvrđuje interna konkurentnost pojedinih robnih sektora, identifikuju izvozni potencijali ali ukazuje i na oportunitetne troškove agrarne spoljne trgovine Srbije.