The development of the market production of cereals in Serbia: Example wheat and corn

Abstract

In the paper, the tendencies in the development of wheat and corn production in the time period from 1976 to 2010 are researched, with a focus on the cluster analysis of the market production of these products per districts in Serbia in 2009. On the basis of more important available land capacities, the volume of production and scope of economic development, the I-distance method is used to rank the districts. The ranking of the districts according to the analyzed characteristics is conducted on the basis of the median value of data per municipalities. For each of the mentioned groups of characteristics, the I-distance is used to rank the districts from 1 to 25, Rank 1 being the best and Rank 25 the worst. The similarities of the districts according to the analyzed characteristics are accounted for by a complete link method of a hierarchical cluster analysis and the results are represented by a dendrogram and a cartogram. Apart from favorable conditions (land, climate, and so on), producers' traditional habits have to the greatest extent had an impact on the unjustifiably high presence of wheat and corn in the structure of crop production. That, to a great extent, has had an influence on the high marketability of the production of wheat and corn in Serbia as well.

U radu su istraživane tendencije u razvoju proizvodnje pšenice i kukuruza u period od 1976. do 2010. godine, sa težištem na klaster analizi tržišne proizvodnje ovih proizvoda po okruzima u Srbiji 2009. godine. Na osnovu važnijih obeležja raspoloživih zemljišnih kapaciteta, obima proizvodnje i privredne razvijenosti, metodom I - odstojanja izvršeno je rangiranje okruga. Rangiranje okruga prema analiziranim obeležjima izvršeno je na osnovu medijalne vrednosti podataka po opštinama. Za svako od navedenih grupa obeležja, I-odstojanjem izvšeno je rangiranje okruga od 1-25, pričemu je rang 1 najbolji, a rang 25 naj lošiji. Sličnosti okruga prema analiziranim obeležjima predstavljene su metodom kompletnog povezivanja hijarhijske klaster analize, a rezultati su predstavljeni dendrogramom i kartogramom. Pored povoljnih uslova (zemljišnih, klimatskih, itd.), tradicionalne navike proizvođača unajvećoj meri su uticali na neopravdano visoku zastupljenost pšenice i kukuruza u strukturi ratarske proizvodnje. To je, uvelikoj meri, uticalo i na visoku tržišnost proizvodnje pšenice i kukuruza u Srbiji.