Predicting apricot phenology using meteorological data
Samo za registrovane korisnike
2011
Članak u časopisu (Objavljena verzija)
Metapodaci
Prikaz svih podataka o dokumentuApstrakt
The main objective of this study was to develop feasible, easy to apply models for early prediction of full flowering (FF) and maturing (MA) in apricot (Prunus armeniaca L.). Phenological data for 20 apricot cultivars grown in the Belgrade region were modeled against averages of daily temperature records over ten seasons for FF and eight seasons for MA. A much stronger correlation was found between the phenological timing and temperature at the very beginning than at the end of phenophases. Also, the length of developmental periods were better correlated to daily maximum than to daily minimum and mean air temperatures. Using prediction models based on daily maximum temperatures averaged over 30-, 45- and 60-day periods, starting from 1 January for FF prediction and from the date of FF for MA prediction, the onset of examined phenophases in apricot cultivars could be predicted from a few weeks to up to 2 months ahead with acceptable accuracy. The mean absolute differences between the ob...servations and cross-validated predictions obtained by 30-, 45-and 60-day models were 8.6, 6.9 and 5.7 days for FF and 6.1, 3.6 and 2.8 days for MA, respectively. The validity of the results was confirmed using an independent data set for the year 2009.
Ključne reči:
Phenological model / Apricot / Full flowering / MaturingIzvor:
International Journal of Biometeorology, 2011, 55, 5, 723-732Izdavač:
- Springer, New York
Finansiranje / projekti:
- Istraživanje klimatskih promena i njihovog uticaja na životnu sredinu - praćenje uticaja, adaptacija i ublažavanje (RS-MESTD-Integrated and Interdisciplinary Research (IIR or III)-43007)
DOI: 10.1007/s00484-010-0387-0
ISSN: 0020-7128
PubMed: 21103892
WoS: 000298394300006
Scopus: 2-s2.0-80052062706
Institucija/grupa
Poljoprivredni fakultetTY - JOUR AU - Ruml, Mirjana AU - Milatović, Dragan AU - Vulić, Todor AU - Vuković, Ana PY - 2011 UR - http://aspace.agrif.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/2692 AB - The main objective of this study was to develop feasible, easy to apply models for early prediction of full flowering (FF) and maturing (MA) in apricot (Prunus armeniaca L.). Phenological data for 20 apricot cultivars grown in the Belgrade region were modeled against averages of daily temperature records over ten seasons for FF and eight seasons for MA. A much stronger correlation was found between the phenological timing and temperature at the very beginning than at the end of phenophases. Also, the length of developmental periods were better correlated to daily maximum than to daily minimum and mean air temperatures. Using prediction models based on daily maximum temperatures averaged over 30-, 45- and 60-day periods, starting from 1 January for FF prediction and from the date of FF for MA prediction, the onset of examined phenophases in apricot cultivars could be predicted from a few weeks to up to 2 months ahead with acceptable accuracy. The mean absolute differences between the observations and cross-validated predictions obtained by 30-, 45-and 60-day models were 8.6, 6.9 and 5.7 days for FF and 6.1, 3.6 and 2.8 days for MA, respectively. The validity of the results was confirmed using an independent data set for the year 2009. PB - Springer, New York T2 - International Journal of Biometeorology T1 - Predicting apricot phenology using meteorological data EP - 732 IS - 5 SP - 723 VL - 55 DO - 10.1007/s00484-010-0387-0 ER -
@article{ author = "Ruml, Mirjana and Milatović, Dragan and Vulić, Todor and Vuković, Ana", year = "2011", abstract = "The main objective of this study was to develop feasible, easy to apply models for early prediction of full flowering (FF) and maturing (MA) in apricot (Prunus armeniaca L.). Phenological data for 20 apricot cultivars grown in the Belgrade region were modeled against averages of daily temperature records over ten seasons for FF and eight seasons for MA. A much stronger correlation was found between the phenological timing and temperature at the very beginning than at the end of phenophases. Also, the length of developmental periods were better correlated to daily maximum than to daily minimum and mean air temperatures. Using prediction models based on daily maximum temperatures averaged over 30-, 45- and 60-day periods, starting from 1 January for FF prediction and from the date of FF for MA prediction, the onset of examined phenophases in apricot cultivars could be predicted from a few weeks to up to 2 months ahead with acceptable accuracy. The mean absolute differences between the observations and cross-validated predictions obtained by 30-, 45-and 60-day models were 8.6, 6.9 and 5.7 days for FF and 6.1, 3.6 and 2.8 days for MA, respectively. The validity of the results was confirmed using an independent data set for the year 2009.", publisher = "Springer, New York", journal = "International Journal of Biometeorology", title = "Predicting apricot phenology using meteorological data", pages = "732-723", number = "5", volume = "55", doi = "10.1007/s00484-010-0387-0" }
Ruml, M., Milatović, D., Vulić, T.,& Vuković, A.. (2011). Predicting apricot phenology using meteorological data. in International Journal of Biometeorology Springer, New York., 55(5), 723-732. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-010-0387-0
Ruml M, Milatović D, Vulić T, Vuković A. Predicting apricot phenology using meteorological data. in International Journal of Biometeorology. 2011;55(5):723-732. doi:10.1007/s00484-010-0387-0 .
Ruml, Mirjana, Milatović, Dragan, Vulić, Todor, Vuković, Ana, "Predicting apricot phenology using meteorological data" in International Journal of Biometeorology, 55, no. 5 (2011):723-732, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-010-0387-0 . .