TY  - JOUR
AU  - Kavgić, M.
AU  - Mumović, D.
AU  - Summerfield, A.
AU  - Stevanović, Z.
AU  - Ećim-Djurić, Olivera
PY  - 2013
UR  - http://aspace.agrif.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/3282
AB  - This paper presents the development and evaluation of the Belgrade Domestic Energy Model (BEDEM) for predicting the energy consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions of the existing housing stock. The distribution of energy use in relation to the end use is estimated as: space heating, 71%; light and appliances, 15%; water heating, 9%; and cooking 5%, while the distribution of CO2 emissions is space heating, 59%; light and appliances, 22%; water heating, 13%; and cooking 6%. Local sensitivity analysis is carried out for dwellings of different type and year built, and the largest normalized sensitivity coefficients were calculated for parameters which almost exclusively influence space heating energy consumption in housing. For all input parameters under investigation, the effects of the input uncertainty were linear for a moderate range of input change (Delta x=+/- 10%) and superposable for a small range of input change (Delta x=+/- 1%). However, the non-linear and non-additive properties of some input parameters over the wider range hinder the development of a simple but reliable model for estimating energy and CO2 reductions. The findings show that the uncertainty in the stock models predictions can be large and more work is needed in the area of the predictive uncertainty of stock models.
PB  - Elsevier Science Sa, Lausanne
T2  - Energy and Buildings
T1  - Uncertainty and modeling energy consumption: Sensitivity analysis for a city-scale domestic energy model
EP  - 11
SP  - 1
VL  - 60
DO  - 10.1016/j.enbuild.2013.01.005
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Kavgić, M. and Mumović, D. and Summerfield, A. and Stevanović, Z. and Ećim-Djurić, Olivera",
year = "2013",
abstract = "This paper presents the development and evaluation of the Belgrade Domestic Energy Model (BEDEM) for predicting the energy consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions of the existing housing stock. The distribution of energy use in relation to the end use is estimated as: space heating, 71%; light and appliances, 15%; water heating, 9%; and cooking 5%, while the distribution of CO2 emissions is space heating, 59%; light and appliances, 22%; water heating, 13%; and cooking 6%. Local sensitivity analysis is carried out for dwellings of different type and year built, and the largest normalized sensitivity coefficients were calculated for parameters which almost exclusively influence space heating energy consumption in housing. For all input parameters under investigation, the effects of the input uncertainty were linear for a moderate range of input change (Delta x=+/- 10%) and superposable for a small range of input change (Delta x=+/- 1%). However, the non-linear and non-additive properties of some input parameters over the wider range hinder the development of a simple but reliable model for estimating energy and CO2 reductions. The findings show that the uncertainty in the stock models predictions can be large and more work is needed in the area of the predictive uncertainty of stock models.",
publisher = "Elsevier Science Sa, Lausanne",
journal = "Energy and Buildings",
title = "Uncertainty and modeling energy consumption: Sensitivity analysis for a city-scale domestic energy model",
pages = "11-1",
volume = "60",
doi = "10.1016/j.enbuild.2013.01.005"
}

Kavgić, M., Mumović, D., Summerfield, A., Stevanović, Z.,& Ećim-Djurić, O.. (2013). Uncertainty and modeling energy consumption: Sensitivity analysis for a city-scale domestic energy model. in Energy and Buildings
Elsevier Science Sa, Lausanne., 60, 1-11.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2013.01.005

Kavgić M, Mumović D, Summerfield A, Stevanović Z, Ećim-Djurić O. Uncertainty and modeling energy consumption: Sensitivity analysis for a city-scale domestic energy model. in Energy and Buildings. 2013;60:1-11.
doi:10.1016/j.enbuild.2013.01.005 .

Kavgić, M., Mumović, D., Summerfield, A., Stevanović, Z., Ećim-Djurić, Olivera, "Uncertainty and modeling energy consumption: Sensitivity analysis for a city-scale domestic energy model" in Energy and Buildings, 60 (2013):1-11,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2013.01.005 . .