TY  - JOUR
AU  - Lalić, Branislava
AU  - Sremac, A.Firanj
AU  - Eitzinger, Josef
AU  - Stričević, Ružica
AU  - Thaler, S.
AU  - Maksimović, I
AU  - Danicić, M.
AU  - Perisić, D.
AU  - Dekić, Lj
PY  - 2018
UR  - http://aspace.agrif.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/4684
AB  - A probabilistic crop forecast based on ensembles of crop model output estimates, presented here, offers an ensemble of possible realizations and probabilistic forecasts of green water components, crop yield and green water footprints (WFs) on seasonal scales for selected summer crops. The present paper presents results of an ongoing study related to the application of ensemble forecasting concepts in crop production. Seasonal forecasting of crop water use indicators (evapotranspiration (ET), water productivity, green WF) and yield of rainfed summer crops (maize, spring barley and sunflower), was performed using the AquaCrop model and ensemble weather forecast, provided by The European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast. The ensemble of estimates obtained was tested with observation-based simulations to assess the ability of seasonal weather forecasts to ensure that accuracy of the simulation results was the same as for those obtained using observed weather data. Best results are obtained for ensemble forecast for yield, ET, water productivity and green WF for sunflower in Novi Sad (Serbia) and maize in Gross-Enzersdorf (Austria) - average root mean square error (2006-2014) was  lt 10% of observation-based values of selected variables. For variables yielding a probability distribution, capacity to reflect the distribution from which their outcomes will be drawn was tested using an Ignorance score. Average Ignorance score, for all locations, crops and variables varied from 1.49 (spring barley ET in Gross-Enzersdorf) to 3.35 (sunflower water productivity in Gross-Enzersdorf).
PB  - Cambridge Univ Press, New York
T2  - Journal of Agricultural Science
T1  - Seasonal forecasting of green water components and crop yield of summer crops in Serbia and Austria
EP  - 672
IS  - 5
SP  - 658
VL  - 156
DO  - 10.1017/S0021859618000047
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Lalić, Branislava and Sremac, A.Firanj and Eitzinger, Josef and Stričević, Ružica and Thaler, S. and Maksimović, I and Danicić, M. and Perisić, D. and Dekić, Lj",
year = "2018",
abstract = "A probabilistic crop forecast based on ensembles of crop model output estimates, presented here, offers an ensemble of possible realizations and probabilistic forecasts of green water components, crop yield and green water footprints (WFs) on seasonal scales for selected summer crops. The present paper presents results of an ongoing study related to the application of ensemble forecasting concepts in crop production. Seasonal forecasting of crop water use indicators (evapotranspiration (ET), water productivity, green WF) and yield of rainfed summer crops (maize, spring barley and sunflower), was performed using the AquaCrop model and ensemble weather forecast, provided by The European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast. The ensemble of estimates obtained was tested with observation-based simulations to assess the ability of seasonal weather forecasts to ensure that accuracy of the simulation results was the same as for those obtained using observed weather data. Best results are obtained for ensemble forecast for yield, ET, water productivity and green WF for sunflower in Novi Sad (Serbia) and maize in Gross-Enzersdorf (Austria) - average root mean square error (2006-2014) was  lt 10% of observation-based values of selected variables. For variables yielding a probability distribution, capacity to reflect the distribution from which their outcomes will be drawn was tested using an Ignorance score. Average Ignorance score, for all locations, crops and variables varied from 1.49 (spring barley ET in Gross-Enzersdorf) to 3.35 (sunflower water productivity in Gross-Enzersdorf).",
publisher = "Cambridge Univ Press, New York",
journal = "Journal of Agricultural Science",
title = "Seasonal forecasting of green water components and crop yield of summer crops in Serbia and Austria",
pages = "672-658",
number = "5",
volume = "156",
doi = "10.1017/S0021859618000047"
}

Lalić, B., Sremac, A.Firanj, Eitzinger, J., Stričević, R., Thaler, S., Maksimović, I., Danicić, M., Perisić, D.,& Dekić, L.. (2018). Seasonal forecasting of green water components and crop yield of summer crops in Serbia and Austria. in Journal of Agricultural Science
Cambridge Univ Press, New York., 156(5), 658-672.
https://doi.org/10.1017/S0021859618000047

Lalić B, Sremac A, Eitzinger J, Stričević R, Thaler S, Maksimović I, Danicić M, Perisić D, Dekić L. Seasonal forecasting of green water components and crop yield of summer crops in Serbia and Austria. in Journal of Agricultural Science. 2018;156(5):658-672.
doi:10.1017/S0021859618000047 .

Lalić, Branislava, Sremac, A.Firanj, Eitzinger, Josef, Stričević, Ružica, Thaler, S., Maksimović, I, Danicić, M., Perisić, D., Dekić, Lj, "Seasonal forecasting of green water components and crop yield of summer crops in Serbia and Austria" in Journal of Agricultural Science, 156, no. 5 (2018):658-672,
https://doi.org/10.1017/S0021859618000047 . .