TY  - JOUR
AU  - Lalić, Branislava
AU  - Sremac, A.Firanj
AU  - Eitzinger, Josef
AU  - Stričević, Ružica
AU  - Thaler, S.
AU  - Maksimović, I
AU  - Danicić, M.
AU  - Perisić, D.
AU  - Dekić, Lj
PY  - 2018
UR  - http://aspace.agrif.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/4684
AB  - A probabilistic crop forecast based on ensembles of crop model output estimates, presented here, offers an ensemble of possible realizations and probabilistic forecasts of green water components, crop yield and green water footprints (WFs) on seasonal scales for selected summer crops. The present paper presents results of an ongoing study related to the application of ensemble forecasting concepts in crop production. Seasonal forecasting of crop water use indicators (evapotranspiration (ET), water productivity, green WF) and yield of rainfed summer crops (maize, spring barley and sunflower), was performed using the AquaCrop model and ensemble weather forecast, provided by The European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast. The ensemble of estimates obtained was tested with observation-based simulations to assess the ability of seasonal weather forecasts to ensure that accuracy of the simulation results was the same as for those obtained using observed weather data. Best results are obtained for ensemble forecast for yield, ET, water productivity and green WF for sunflower in Novi Sad (Serbia) and maize in Gross-Enzersdorf (Austria) - average root mean square error (2006-2014) was  lt 10% of observation-based values of selected variables. For variables yielding a probability distribution, capacity to reflect the distribution from which their outcomes will be drawn was tested using an Ignorance score. Average Ignorance score, for all locations, crops and variables varied from 1.49 (spring barley ET in Gross-Enzersdorf) to 3.35 (sunflower water productivity in Gross-Enzersdorf).
PB  - Cambridge Univ Press, New York
T2  - Journal of Agricultural Science
T1  - Seasonal forecasting of green water components and crop yield of summer crops in Serbia and Austria
EP  - 672
IS  - 5
SP  - 658
VL  - 156
DO  - 10.1017/S0021859618000047
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Lalić, Branislava and Sremac, A.Firanj and Eitzinger, Josef and Stričević, Ružica and Thaler, S. and Maksimović, I and Danicić, M. and Perisić, D. and Dekić, Lj",
year = "2018",
abstract = "A probabilistic crop forecast based on ensembles of crop model output estimates, presented here, offers an ensemble of possible realizations and probabilistic forecasts of green water components, crop yield and green water footprints (WFs) on seasonal scales for selected summer crops. The present paper presents results of an ongoing study related to the application of ensemble forecasting concepts in crop production. Seasonal forecasting of crop water use indicators (evapotranspiration (ET), water productivity, green WF) and yield of rainfed summer crops (maize, spring barley and sunflower), was performed using the AquaCrop model and ensemble weather forecast, provided by The European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast. The ensemble of estimates obtained was tested with observation-based simulations to assess the ability of seasonal weather forecasts to ensure that accuracy of the simulation results was the same as for those obtained using observed weather data. Best results are obtained for ensemble forecast for yield, ET, water productivity and green WF for sunflower in Novi Sad (Serbia) and maize in Gross-Enzersdorf (Austria) - average root mean square error (2006-2014) was  lt 10% of observation-based values of selected variables. For variables yielding a probability distribution, capacity to reflect the distribution from which their outcomes will be drawn was tested using an Ignorance score. Average Ignorance score, for all locations, crops and variables varied from 1.49 (spring barley ET in Gross-Enzersdorf) to 3.35 (sunflower water productivity in Gross-Enzersdorf).",
publisher = "Cambridge Univ Press, New York",
journal = "Journal of Agricultural Science",
title = "Seasonal forecasting of green water components and crop yield of summer crops in Serbia and Austria",
pages = "672-658",
number = "5",
volume = "156",
doi = "10.1017/S0021859618000047"
}

Lalić, B., Sremac, A.Firanj, Eitzinger, J., Stričević, R., Thaler, S., Maksimović, I., Danicić, M., Perisić, D.,& Dekić, L.. (2018). Seasonal forecasting of green water components and crop yield of summer crops in Serbia and Austria. in Journal of Agricultural Science
Cambridge Univ Press, New York., 156(5), 658-672.
https://doi.org/10.1017/S0021859618000047

Lalić B, Sremac A, Eitzinger J, Stričević R, Thaler S, Maksimović I, Danicić M, Perisić D, Dekić L. Seasonal forecasting of green water components and crop yield of summer crops in Serbia and Austria. in Journal of Agricultural Science. 2018;156(5):658-672.
doi:10.1017/S0021859618000047 .

Lalić, Branislava, Sremac, A.Firanj, Eitzinger, Josef, Stričević, Ružica, Thaler, S., Maksimović, I, Danicić, M., Perisić, D., Dekić, Lj, "Seasonal forecasting of green water components and crop yield of summer crops in Serbia and Austria" in Journal of Agricultural Science, 156, no. 5 (2018):658-672,
https://doi.org/10.1017/S0021859618000047 . .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Gobin, Anne
AU  - Kersebaum, Kurt Christian
AU  - Eitzinger, Josef
AU  - Trnka, Miroslav
AU  - Hlavinka, Petr
AU  - Takac, Jozef
AU  - Kroes, Joop
AU  - Ventrella, Domenico
AU  - Dalla Marta, Anna
AU  - Deelstra, Johannes
AU  - Lalić, Branislava
AU  - Nejedlik, Pavol
AU  - Orlandini, Simone
AU  - Peltonen-Sainio, Pirjo
AU  - Rajala, Ari
AU  - Saue, Triin
AU  - Saylan, Levent
AU  - Stričević, Ružica
AU  - Vucetić, Visnja
AU  - Zoumides, Christos
PY  - 2017
UR  - http://aspace.agrif.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/4396
AB  - Crop growth and yield are affected by water use during the season: the green water footprint (WF) accounts for rain water, the blue WF for irrigation and the grey WF for diluting agri-chemicals. We calibrated crop yield for FAO's water balance model " Aquacrop" at field level. We collected weather, soil and crop inputs for 45 locations for the period 1992-2012. Calibrated model runs were conducted for wheat, barley, grain maize, oilseed rape, potato and sugar beet. The WF of cereals could be up to 20 times larger than the WF of tuber and root crops; the largest share was attributed to the green WF. The green and blue WF compared favourably with global benchmark values (R2 = 0.64-0.80; d = 0.91-0.95). The variability in the WF of arable crops across different regions in Europe is mainly due to variability in crop yield (cv = 45%) and to a lesser extent to variability in crop water use (cv = 21%). The WF variability between countries (cv = 14%) is lower than the variability between seasons (cv = 22%) and between crops (cv = 46%). Though modelled yields increased up to 50% under sprinkler irrigation, the water footprint still increased between 1% and 25%. Confronted with drainage and runoff, the grey WF tended to overestimate the contribution of nitrogen to the surface and groundwater. The results showed that the water footprint provides a measurable indicator that may support European water governance.
PB  - MDPI AG, BASEL
T2  - Water (Switzerland)
T1  - Variability in the Water Footprint of Arable Crop Production across European Regions
IS  - 2
VL  - 9
DO  - 10.3390/w9020093
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Gobin, Anne and Kersebaum, Kurt Christian and Eitzinger, Josef and Trnka, Miroslav and Hlavinka, Petr and Takac, Jozef and Kroes, Joop and Ventrella, Domenico and Dalla Marta, Anna and Deelstra, Johannes and Lalić, Branislava and Nejedlik, Pavol and Orlandini, Simone and Peltonen-Sainio, Pirjo and Rajala, Ari and Saue, Triin and Saylan, Levent and Stričević, Ružica and Vucetić, Visnja and Zoumides, Christos",
year = "2017",
abstract = "Crop growth and yield are affected by water use during the season: the green water footprint (WF) accounts for rain water, the blue WF for irrigation and the grey WF for diluting agri-chemicals. We calibrated crop yield for FAO's water balance model " Aquacrop" at field level. We collected weather, soil and crop inputs for 45 locations for the period 1992-2012. Calibrated model runs were conducted for wheat, barley, grain maize, oilseed rape, potato and sugar beet. The WF of cereals could be up to 20 times larger than the WF of tuber and root crops; the largest share was attributed to the green WF. The green and blue WF compared favourably with global benchmark values (R2 = 0.64-0.80; d = 0.91-0.95). The variability in the WF of arable crops across different regions in Europe is mainly due to variability in crop yield (cv = 45%) and to a lesser extent to variability in crop water use (cv = 21%). The WF variability between countries (cv = 14%) is lower than the variability between seasons (cv = 22%) and between crops (cv = 46%). Though modelled yields increased up to 50% under sprinkler irrigation, the water footprint still increased between 1% and 25%. Confronted with drainage and runoff, the grey WF tended to overestimate the contribution of nitrogen to the surface and groundwater. The results showed that the water footprint provides a measurable indicator that may support European water governance.",
publisher = "MDPI AG, BASEL",
journal = "Water (Switzerland)",
title = "Variability in the Water Footprint of Arable Crop Production across European Regions",
number = "2",
volume = "9",
doi = "10.3390/w9020093"
}

Gobin, A., Kersebaum, K. C., Eitzinger, J., Trnka, M., Hlavinka, P., Takac, J., Kroes, J., Ventrella, D., Dalla Marta, A., Deelstra, J., Lalić, B., Nejedlik, P., Orlandini, S., Peltonen-Sainio, P., Rajala, A., Saue, T., Saylan, L., Stričević, R., Vucetić, V.,& Zoumides, C.. (2017). Variability in the Water Footprint of Arable Crop Production across European Regions. in Water (Switzerland)
MDPI AG, BASEL., 9(2).
https://doi.org/10.3390/w9020093

Gobin A, Kersebaum KC, Eitzinger J, Trnka M, Hlavinka P, Takac J, Kroes J, Ventrella D, Dalla Marta A, Deelstra J, Lalić B, Nejedlik P, Orlandini S, Peltonen-Sainio P, Rajala A, Saue T, Saylan L, Stričević R, Vucetić V, Zoumides C. Variability in the Water Footprint of Arable Crop Production across European Regions. in Water (Switzerland). 2017;9(2).
doi:10.3390/w9020093 .

Gobin, Anne, Kersebaum, Kurt Christian, Eitzinger, Josef, Trnka, Miroslav, Hlavinka, Petr, Takac, Jozef, Kroes, Joop, Ventrella, Domenico, Dalla Marta, Anna, Deelstra, Johannes, Lalić, Branislava, Nejedlik, Pavol, Orlandini, Simone, Peltonen-Sainio, Pirjo, Rajala, Ari, Saue, Triin, Saylan, Levent, Stričević, Ružica, Vucetić, Visnja, Zoumides, Christos, "Variability in the Water Footprint of Arable Crop Production across European Regions" in Water (Switzerland), 9, no. 2 (2017),
https://doi.org/10.3390/w9020093 . .