The prediction of grapevine phenophases in climate change conditions
Samo za registrovane korisnike
2022
Autori
Sotonica, DunjaĆosić, Marija
Ranković Vasić, Zorica
Lipovac, Aleksa
Vuković Vimić, Ana
Anđelić, Branislav
Vujadinovic Mandić, Mirjam
Konferencijski prilog (Objavljena verzija)
Metapodaci
Prikaz svih podataka o dokumentuApstrakt
Prediction of phenophases under future climate change scenarios is becoming a strategic
tool for the adaptation to climate change. The aim of this research was to predict changes in
the phenology of the grapevine variety (cv. Panonia) in the vineyard Plavinci (Serbia). Two
future periods were analyzed: I (2021-2040); II (2041-2060) and compared with observed
(2015-2021) and reference data (1986-2005). The scenario RCP 8.5 was selected to predict
the future accompanied by a set of 8 regional climate models (RCMs) from the EUROCORDEX
project database. The results indicated that for the period I the budburst could be
expected on April 14th (3 days later), fl owering on May 29th (6 days later), veraison on July
25th (11 days later), harvest around September 8th (17 days later), and the end of vegetation
around November 1st (1 week earlier) compared to the observed period. For the period II
the date for the budburst, fl owering, veraison, ripe for harvest, and end of vegetation ar...e
predicted for April 8th (3 days earlier), May 24th (1 day later), July 18th (4 days later), August
28th (6 days later), and November 11th (4 days later), respectively. Signifi cant coincidences
of the date of the beginning of phenophases for the observed period and the II period, while
the period I indicates the later appearance of veraison (approximately 7 days). The harvest is
expected about 10 days later in relation to these two periods. Comparing these three periods
with the reference one, it can be concluded that in the past the vegetative period of the vine
lasted shorter, the growing season began much later (April 18th) and ended earlier (October
28th), while the beginnings of other phenophases occurred later.
Ključne reči:
climate change / grapevine / climate models / phenology / adaptation measuresIzvor:
Climate and agriculture, 2022Finansiranje / projekti:
- IAPS - Integrated Agro-Meteorological Prediction System (RS-ScienceFundRS-Promis-6062629)
URI
https://sa.agr.hr/publication/24/57.+hrvatski+i+17.+me%C4%91unarodni+simpozij+agronoma+eZbornik+sa%C5%BEetaka.Full+texthttp://aspace.agrif.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/6673
Institucija/grupa
Poljoprivredni fakultetTY - CONF AU - Sotonica, Dunja AU - Ćosić, Marija AU - Ranković Vasić, Zorica AU - Lipovac, Aleksa AU - Vuković Vimić, Ana AU - Anđelić, Branislav AU - Vujadinovic Mandić, Mirjam PY - 2022 UR - https://sa.agr.hr/publication/24/57.+hrvatski+i+17.+me%C4%91unarodni+simpozij+agronoma+eZbornik+sa%C5%BEetaka.Full+text UR - http://aspace.agrif.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/6673 AB - Prediction of phenophases under future climate change scenarios is becoming a strategic tool for the adaptation to climate change. The aim of this research was to predict changes in the phenology of the grapevine variety (cv. Panonia) in the vineyard Plavinci (Serbia). Two future periods were analyzed: I (2021-2040); II (2041-2060) and compared with observed (2015-2021) and reference data (1986-2005). The scenario RCP 8.5 was selected to predict the future accompanied by a set of 8 regional climate models (RCMs) from the EUROCORDEX project database. The results indicated that for the period I the budburst could be expected on April 14th (3 days later), fl owering on May 29th (6 days later), veraison on July 25th (11 days later), harvest around September 8th (17 days later), and the end of vegetation around November 1st (1 week earlier) compared to the observed period. For the period II the date for the budburst, fl owering, veraison, ripe for harvest, and end of vegetation are predicted for April 8th (3 days earlier), May 24th (1 day later), July 18th (4 days later), August 28th (6 days later), and November 11th (4 days later), respectively. Signifi cant coincidences of the date of the beginning of phenophases for the observed period and the II period, while the period I indicates the later appearance of veraison (approximately 7 days). The harvest is expected about 10 days later in relation to these two periods. Comparing these three periods with the reference one, it can be concluded that in the past the vegetative period of the vine lasted shorter, the growing season began much later (April 18th) and ended earlier (October 28th), while the beginnings of other phenophases occurred later. C3 - Climate and agriculture T1 - The prediction of grapevine phenophases in climate change conditions UR - https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_agrospace_6673 ER -
@conference{ author = "Sotonica, Dunja and Ćosić, Marija and Ranković Vasić, Zorica and Lipovac, Aleksa and Vuković Vimić, Ana and Anđelić, Branislav and Vujadinovic Mandić, Mirjam", year = "2022", abstract = "Prediction of phenophases under future climate change scenarios is becoming a strategic tool for the adaptation to climate change. The aim of this research was to predict changes in the phenology of the grapevine variety (cv. Panonia) in the vineyard Plavinci (Serbia). Two future periods were analyzed: I (2021-2040); II (2041-2060) and compared with observed (2015-2021) and reference data (1986-2005). The scenario RCP 8.5 was selected to predict the future accompanied by a set of 8 regional climate models (RCMs) from the EUROCORDEX project database. The results indicated that for the period I the budburst could be expected on April 14th (3 days later), fl owering on May 29th (6 days later), veraison on July 25th (11 days later), harvest around September 8th (17 days later), and the end of vegetation around November 1st (1 week earlier) compared to the observed period. For the period II the date for the budburst, fl owering, veraison, ripe for harvest, and end of vegetation are predicted for April 8th (3 days earlier), May 24th (1 day later), July 18th (4 days later), August 28th (6 days later), and November 11th (4 days later), respectively. Signifi cant coincidences of the date of the beginning of phenophases for the observed period and the II period, while the period I indicates the later appearance of veraison (approximately 7 days). The harvest is expected about 10 days later in relation to these two periods. Comparing these three periods with the reference one, it can be concluded that in the past the vegetative period of the vine lasted shorter, the growing season began much later (April 18th) and ended earlier (October 28th), while the beginnings of other phenophases occurred later.", journal = "Climate and agriculture", title = "The prediction of grapevine phenophases in climate change conditions", url = "https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_agrospace_6673" }
Sotonica, D., Ćosić, M., Ranković Vasić, Z., Lipovac, A., Vuković Vimić, A., Anđelić, B.,& Vujadinovic Mandić, M.. (2022). The prediction of grapevine phenophases in climate change conditions. in Climate and agriculture. https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_agrospace_6673
Sotonica D, Ćosić M, Ranković Vasić Z, Lipovac A, Vuković Vimić A, Anđelić B, Vujadinovic Mandić M. The prediction of grapevine phenophases in climate change conditions. in Climate and agriculture. 2022;. https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_agrospace_6673 .
Sotonica, Dunja, Ćosić, Marija, Ranković Vasić, Zorica, Lipovac, Aleksa, Vuković Vimić, Ana, Anđelić, Branislav, Vujadinovic Mandić, Mirjam, "The prediction of grapevine phenophases in climate change conditions" in Climate and agriculture (2022), https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_agrospace_6673 .