Simple model for early prediction of flowering in apricot
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2018
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High year-to-year apricot yield oscillations in Serbia are mostly caused by late spring frost. Thus, phenological prediction can help to get more stable apricot yields providing dates for timely frost protection. This study aimed to validate a feasible, easy to apply model for prediction of full flowering in apricot cultivars based on air temperature averaged over 30-, 45- and 60-day periods starting from January 1. The model, capable of predicting the onset of full flowering in apricot cultivars from a few weeks to up to two months ahead with acceptable accuracy, was originally developed using phenological data for 20 apricot cultivars grown in the Belgrade region and daily temperature records over the period 1995-2004. Reevaluation of the data set consisted of phenological records for 20 cultivars grown in the same region and temperature observations from 2009 to 2016. The mean absolute differences between the observations and predictions obtained by 30-, 45- and 60-day models were 5....5, 6.4 and 5.6 days, respectively, on average for all examined cultivars.
Ključne reči:
Cultivars / Flowering / Phenological prediction / Prunus armeniaca L / TemperatureIzvor:
Acta Horticulturae, 2018, 1229, 109-113Izdavač:
- International Society for Horticultural Science
Finansiranje / projekti:
Institucija/grupa
Poljoprivredni fakultetTY - CONF AU - Ruml, Mirjana AU - Milatović, Dragan AU - Vujadinović, Mirjam AU - Vuković, Ana PY - 2018 UR - http://aspace.agrif.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/4805 AB - High year-to-year apricot yield oscillations in Serbia are mostly caused by late spring frost. Thus, phenological prediction can help to get more stable apricot yields providing dates for timely frost protection. This study aimed to validate a feasible, easy to apply model for prediction of full flowering in apricot cultivars based on air temperature averaged over 30-, 45- and 60-day periods starting from January 1. The model, capable of predicting the onset of full flowering in apricot cultivars from a few weeks to up to two months ahead with acceptable accuracy, was originally developed using phenological data for 20 apricot cultivars grown in the Belgrade region and daily temperature records over the period 1995-2004. Reevaluation of the data set consisted of phenological records for 20 cultivars grown in the same region and temperature observations from 2009 to 2016. The mean absolute differences between the observations and predictions obtained by 30-, 45- and 60-day models were 5.5, 6.4 and 5.6 days, respectively, on average for all examined cultivars. PB - International Society for Horticultural Science C3 - Acta Horticulturae T1 - Simple model for early prediction of flowering in apricot EP - 113 SP - 109 VL - 1229 DO - 10.17660/ActaHortic.2018.1229.17 ER -
@conference{ author = "Ruml, Mirjana and Milatović, Dragan and Vujadinović, Mirjam and Vuković, Ana", year = "2018", abstract = "High year-to-year apricot yield oscillations in Serbia are mostly caused by late spring frost. Thus, phenological prediction can help to get more stable apricot yields providing dates for timely frost protection. This study aimed to validate a feasible, easy to apply model for prediction of full flowering in apricot cultivars based on air temperature averaged over 30-, 45- and 60-day periods starting from January 1. The model, capable of predicting the onset of full flowering in apricot cultivars from a few weeks to up to two months ahead with acceptable accuracy, was originally developed using phenological data for 20 apricot cultivars grown in the Belgrade region and daily temperature records over the period 1995-2004. Reevaluation of the data set consisted of phenological records for 20 cultivars grown in the same region and temperature observations from 2009 to 2016. The mean absolute differences between the observations and predictions obtained by 30-, 45- and 60-day models were 5.5, 6.4 and 5.6 days, respectively, on average for all examined cultivars.", publisher = "International Society for Horticultural Science", journal = "Acta Horticulturae", title = "Simple model for early prediction of flowering in apricot", pages = "113-109", volume = "1229", doi = "10.17660/ActaHortic.2018.1229.17" }
Ruml, M., Milatović, D., Vujadinović, M.,& Vuković, A.. (2018). Simple model for early prediction of flowering in apricot. in Acta Horticulturae International Society for Horticultural Science., 1229, 109-113. https://doi.org/10.17660/ActaHortic.2018.1229.17
Ruml M, Milatović D, Vujadinović M, Vuković A. Simple model for early prediction of flowering in apricot. in Acta Horticulturae. 2018;1229:109-113. doi:10.17660/ActaHortic.2018.1229.17 .
Ruml, Mirjana, Milatović, Dragan, Vujadinović, Mirjam, Vuković, Ana, "Simple model for early prediction of flowering in apricot" in Acta Horticulturae, 1229 (2018):109-113, https://doi.org/10.17660/ActaHortic.2018.1229.17 . .