Modeling of structure of changes in wine consumption by Markov's discrete model
Modeliranje strukture promena u potrošnji vina diskretnim modelom Markova
Апстракт
The market needs constant investigation in order to contribute to timely and correct decision making. It was found that the production structure needs, changes considering the changing needs, desires and habits of the consumers provoked by various factors. Based on the data over the past 30 years and using Markov's model changes in wine consumption were estimated and wine consumption for the following year was forecasted. Beer consumers were found to be the most stable group were as the most prominent changes were noted in brandy consumers. These results may be of major importance to managers in cases when numerous factors affect the wine market, decreasing business risk and eventually increasing income.
Na osnovu agregiranih vremenskih serija (1968-1999 god.) o potrošnji vina u Srbiji, u ovom radu se ocenjuju prelazne verovatnoće diskretnog modela Markova. Za izračunate vrednosti prati se verovatnoća da određen deo potrošača prihvati drugi proizvod (u ovom slučaju pivo, rakiju ili ostale vrste alkoholnih pića). Modeliranjem strukture potrošnje dolazi se do zaključaka koji daju smernice ka poboljšawu proizvodnih rezultata preduzeća donošenjem pravilnih odluka o izboru proizvodnog programa.
Кључне речи:
wine / consumption / time series / Markov's discrete model / potrošnja vina / agregirane vremenske serije / diskretni model MarkovaИзвор:
Poljoprivreda, 2002, 51, 390-393, 315-320Издавач:
- Savez poljoprivrednih inženjera i tehničara, Beograd
Институција/група
Poljoprivredni fakultetTY - JOUR AU - Kalanović, Branka AU - Rajić, Zoran AU - Ralević, Nebojša PY - 2002 UR - http://aspace.agrif.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/463 AB - The market needs constant investigation in order to contribute to timely and correct decision making. It was found that the production structure needs, changes considering the changing needs, desires and habits of the consumers provoked by various factors. Based on the data over the past 30 years and using Markov's model changes in wine consumption were estimated and wine consumption for the following year was forecasted. Beer consumers were found to be the most stable group were as the most prominent changes were noted in brandy consumers. These results may be of major importance to managers in cases when numerous factors affect the wine market, decreasing business risk and eventually increasing income. AB - Na osnovu agregiranih vremenskih serija (1968-1999 god.) o potrošnji vina u Srbiji, u ovom radu se ocenjuju prelazne verovatnoće diskretnog modela Markova. Za izračunate vrednosti prati se verovatnoća da određen deo potrošača prihvati drugi proizvod (u ovom slučaju pivo, rakiju ili ostale vrste alkoholnih pića). Modeliranjem strukture potrošnje dolazi se do zaključaka koji daju smernice ka poboljšawu proizvodnih rezultata preduzeća donošenjem pravilnih odluka o izboru proizvodnog programa. PB - Savez poljoprivrednih inženjera i tehničara, Beograd T2 - Poljoprivreda T1 - Modeling of structure of changes in wine consumption by Markov's discrete model T1 - Modeliranje strukture promena u potrošnji vina diskretnim modelom Markova EP - 320 IS - 390-393 SP - 315 VL - 51 UR - https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_agrospace_463 ER -
@article{ author = "Kalanović, Branka and Rajić, Zoran and Ralević, Nebojša", year = "2002", abstract = "The market needs constant investigation in order to contribute to timely and correct decision making. It was found that the production structure needs, changes considering the changing needs, desires and habits of the consumers provoked by various factors. Based on the data over the past 30 years and using Markov's model changes in wine consumption were estimated and wine consumption for the following year was forecasted. Beer consumers were found to be the most stable group were as the most prominent changes were noted in brandy consumers. These results may be of major importance to managers in cases when numerous factors affect the wine market, decreasing business risk and eventually increasing income., Na osnovu agregiranih vremenskih serija (1968-1999 god.) o potrošnji vina u Srbiji, u ovom radu se ocenjuju prelazne verovatnoće diskretnog modela Markova. Za izračunate vrednosti prati se verovatnoća da određen deo potrošača prihvati drugi proizvod (u ovom slučaju pivo, rakiju ili ostale vrste alkoholnih pića). Modeliranjem strukture potrošnje dolazi se do zaključaka koji daju smernice ka poboljšawu proizvodnih rezultata preduzeća donošenjem pravilnih odluka o izboru proizvodnog programa.", publisher = "Savez poljoprivrednih inženjera i tehničara, Beograd", journal = "Poljoprivreda", title = "Modeling of structure of changes in wine consumption by Markov's discrete model, Modeliranje strukture promena u potrošnji vina diskretnim modelom Markova", pages = "320-315", number = "390-393", volume = "51", url = "https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_agrospace_463" }
Kalanović, B., Rajić, Z.,& Ralević, N.. (2002). Modeling of structure of changes in wine consumption by Markov's discrete model. in Poljoprivreda Savez poljoprivrednih inženjera i tehničara, Beograd., 51(390-393), 315-320. https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_agrospace_463
Kalanović B, Rajić Z, Ralević N. Modeling of structure of changes in wine consumption by Markov's discrete model. in Poljoprivreda. 2002;51(390-393):315-320. https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_agrospace_463 .
Kalanović, Branka, Rajić, Zoran, Ralević, Nebojša, "Modeling of structure of changes in wine consumption by Markov's discrete model" in Poljoprivreda, 51, no. 390-393 (2002):315-320, https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_agrospace_463 .