Simulation of a classical swine fever outbreak in rural areas of the Republic of Serbia
Abstract
Several different strategies for control and eradication of classical swine fever (CSF) were compared using a Monte Carlo method-based simulation model. The control strategy analysed in this paper, in addition to other CSF control measures, includes application of biosecurity measures on pig farms and rural backyard holdings. Elements of the control strategy are based on applicable regulations and include the simulation of detection of the disease, setting up the protected and surveillance zones, standstill of pig movements and restricted movement of animals, vehicles, equipment, and people with strong control measures in protection and surveillance zones, euthanasia of susceptible pigs, protective vaccination of pigs, compensation etc. During the simulation, different output parameters were compared such as: duration of epidemic of a disease, number of affected holdings and animals, direct costs such as those for dead or culled animals, costs of surveillance, disposal of infectious ma...terials, cleaning and disinfection. Depopulation of affected animals with early diagnostics and vaccination in the protection and surveillance zone proved to be the most effective measures to stop the spread and for the eradication of the disease. Moreover, during the simulation, systematic implementation of biosecurity measures in all pig production clusters was demonstrated to be an appropriate strategy for sustainable control of CSF and the establishment of a stable epidemiological situation.
Keywords:
Monte Carlo simulation / classical swine fever / biosecurity measures / control strategySource:
Veterinarni Medicina, 2015, 60, 10, 553-566Publisher:
- Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences
Funding / projects:
- Bacterial zoonoses-Development of molecular and immunological diagnostic methods and their standardization (RS-31088)
- Ecological and viral investigation on the presents of emerging zoonoses in national parks in republic of Serbia (RS-37015)
DOI: 10.17221/8494-VETMED
ISSN: 0375-8427
WoS: 000363178900004
Scopus: 2-s2.0-84946215029
Collections
Institution/Community
Poljoprivredni fakultetTY - JOUR AU - Stanojević, S. AU - Valčić, Miroslav AU - Stanojević, S. AU - Radojicić, S. AU - Avramov, Stevan N. AU - Tambur, Z. PY - 2015 UR - http://aspace.agrif.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/3692 AB - Several different strategies for control and eradication of classical swine fever (CSF) were compared using a Monte Carlo method-based simulation model. The control strategy analysed in this paper, in addition to other CSF control measures, includes application of biosecurity measures on pig farms and rural backyard holdings. Elements of the control strategy are based on applicable regulations and include the simulation of detection of the disease, setting up the protected and surveillance zones, standstill of pig movements and restricted movement of animals, vehicles, equipment, and people with strong control measures in protection and surveillance zones, euthanasia of susceptible pigs, protective vaccination of pigs, compensation etc. During the simulation, different output parameters were compared such as: duration of epidemic of a disease, number of affected holdings and animals, direct costs such as those for dead or culled animals, costs of surveillance, disposal of infectious materials, cleaning and disinfection. Depopulation of affected animals with early diagnostics and vaccination in the protection and surveillance zone proved to be the most effective measures to stop the spread and for the eradication of the disease. Moreover, during the simulation, systematic implementation of biosecurity measures in all pig production clusters was demonstrated to be an appropriate strategy for sustainable control of CSF and the establishment of a stable epidemiological situation. PB - Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences T2 - Veterinarni Medicina T1 - Simulation of a classical swine fever outbreak in rural areas of the Republic of Serbia EP - 566 IS - 10 SP - 553 VL - 60 DO - 10.17221/8494-VETMED ER -
@article{ author = "Stanojević, S. and Valčić, Miroslav and Stanojević, S. and Radojicić, S. and Avramov, Stevan N. and Tambur, Z.", year = "2015", abstract = "Several different strategies for control and eradication of classical swine fever (CSF) were compared using a Monte Carlo method-based simulation model. The control strategy analysed in this paper, in addition to other CSF control measures, includes application of biosecurity measures on pig farms and rural backyard holdings. Elements of the control strategy are based on applicable regulations and include the simulation of detection of the disease, setting up the protected and surveillance zones, standstill of pig movements and restricted movement of animals, vehicles, equipment, and people with strong control measures in protection and surveillance zones, euthanasia of susceptible pigs, protective vaccination of pigs, compensation etc. During the simulation, different output parameters were compared such as: duration of epidemic of a disease, number of affected holdings and animals, direct costs such as those for dead or culled animals, costs of surveillance, disposal of infectious materials, cleaning and disinfection. Depopulation of affected animals with early diagnostics and vaccination in the protection and surveillance zone proved to be the most effective measures to stop the spread and for the eradication of the disease. Moreover, during the simulation, systematic implementation of biosecurity measures in all pig production clusters was demonstrated to be an appropriate strategy for sustainable control of CSF and the establishment of a stable epidemiological situation.", publisher = "Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences", journal = "Veterinarni Medicina", title = "Simulation of a classical swine fever outbreak in rural areas of the Republic of Serbia", pages = "566-553", number = "10", volume = "60", doi = "10.17221/8494-VETMED" }
Stanojević, S., Valčić, M., Stanojević, S., Radojicić, S., Avramov, S. N.,& Tambur, Z.. (2015). Simulation of a classical swine fever outbreak in rural areas of the Republic of Serbia. in Veterinarni Medicina Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences., 60(10), 553-566. https://doi.org/10.17221/8494-VETMED
Stanojević S, Valčić M, Stanojević S, Radojicić S, Avramov SN, Tambur Z. Simulation of a classical swine fever outbreak in rural areas of the Republic of Serbia. in Veterinarni Medicina. 2015;60(10):553-566. doi:10.17221/8494-VETMED .
Stanojević, S., Valčić, Miroslav, Stanojević, S., Radojicić, S., Avramov, Stevan N., Tambur, Z., "Simulation of a classical swine fever outbreak in rural areas of the Republic of Serbia" in Veterinarni Medicina, 60, no. 10 (2015):553-566, https://doi.org/10.17221/8494-VETMED . .