On the use of regional climate models: Implications of climate change for viticulture in Serbia
Samo za registrovane korisnike
2012
Autori
Ruml, MirjanaVuković, Ana
Vujadinović, Mirjam
Djurdjević, Vladimir
Ranković-Vasić, Zorica
Atanacković, Zoran
Sivčev, Branislava
Marković, Nebojša
Matijašević, Saša
Petrović, Nevena
Članak u časopisu (Objavljena verzija)
Metapodaci
Prikaz svih podataka o dokumentuApstrakt
Climate projections obtained from the coupled regional climate model EBU-POM (Eta Belgrade University - Princeton Ocean Model) driven by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), showed that the vineyard regions of Serbia tend to become warmer and dryer toward the end of 21st century. To evaluate how Serbian viticulture could be affected by a projected climate regime, several climatic variables and agro-climatic indices describing the suitability of a particular area for grapevine production were calculated, after a statistical bias correction was applied to the daily temperature and precipitation data from EBU-POM outputs. Comparison between climatic variables and agro-climatic indices for the reference period 1961-1990 and predicted values for the 2001-2030 period (under the SRES A1B scenario) and the 2071-2100 period (under the SRES A2 scenario) was made for 18 climatological stations placed mostly within, but also outside traditiona...l viticultural regions. According to the obtained change trends it is likely that no significant disturbances in Serbian viticulture will occur over the next few decades, but considerable changes are expected by the end of the 21st century. Warmer and prolonged growing season with greater heat accumulation and longer frost-free period with decline in frost frequency would likely affect the yield and ripening potential of grapes and induce shifts in varietal suitability and wine styles. Projected changes may bring on the need for additional vineyard irrigation, but also open up the possibility that marginal and elevated areas, previously too cool for cultivation of grapevines, become climatically suited for viticulture.
Ključne reči:
Grapevine / Regional climate change / Agro-climatic indices / Bias correction / SerbiaIzvor:
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2012, 158, 53-62Izdavač:
- Elsevier, Amsterdam
Finansiranje / projekti:
- Istraživanje klimatskih promena i njihovog uticaja na životnu sredinu - praćenje uticaja, adaptacija i ublažavanje (RS-MESTD-Integrated and Interdisciplinary Research (IIR or III)-43007)
DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.02.004
ISSN: 0168-1923
WoS: 000303076800006
Scopus: 2-s2.0-84857736222
Institucija/grupa
Poljoprivredni fakultetTY - JOUR AU - Ruml, Mirjana AU - Vuković, Ana AU - Vujadinović, Mirjam AU - Djurdjević, Vladimir AU - Ranković-Vasić, Zorica AU - Atanacković, Zoran AU - Sivčev, Branislava AU - Marković, Nebojša AU - Matijašević, Saša AU - Petrović, Nevena PY - 2012 UR - http://aspace.agrif.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/3029 AB - Climate projections obtained from the coupled regional climate model EBU-POM (Eta Belgrade University - Princeton Ocean Model) driven by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), showed that the vineyard regions of Serbia tend to become warmer and dryer toward the end of 21st century. To evaluate how Serbian viticulture could be affected by a projected climate regime, several climatic variables and agro-climatic indices describing the suitability of a particular area for grapevine production were calculated, after a statistical bias correction was applied to the daily temperature and precipitation data from EBU-POM outputs. Comparison between climatic variables and agro-climatic indices for the reference period 1961-1990 and predicted values for the 2001-2030 period (under the SRES A1B scenario) and the 2071-2100 period (under the SRES A2 scenario) was made for 18 climatological stations placed mostly within, but also outside traditional viticultural regions. According to the obtained change trends it is likely that no significant disturbances in Serbian viticulture will occur over the next few decades, but considerable changes are expected by the end of the 21st century. Warmer and prolonged growing season with greater heat accumulation and longer frost-free period with decline in frost frequency would likely affect the yield and ripening potential of grapes and induce shifts in varietal suitability and wine styles. Projected changes may bring on the need for additional vineyard irrigation, but also open up the possibility that marginal and elevated areas, previously too cool for cultivation of grapevines, become climatically suited for viticulture. PB - Elsevier, Amsterdam T2 - Agricultural and Forest Meteorology T1 - On the use of regional climate models: Implications of climate change for viticulture in Serbia EP - 62 SP - 53 VL - 158 DO - 10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.02.004 ER -
@article{ author = "Ruml, Mirjana and Vuković, Ana and Vujadinović, Mirjam and Djurdjević, Vladimir and Ranković-Vasić, Zorica and Atanacković, Zoran and Sivčev, Branislava and Marković, Nebojša and Matijašević, Saša and Petrović, Nevena", year = "2012", abstract = "Climate projections obtained from the coupled regional climate model EBU-POM (Eta Belgrade University - Princeton Ocean Model) driven by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), showed that the vineyard regions of Serbia tend to become warmer and dryer toward the end of 21st century. To evaluate how Serbian viticulture could be affected by a projected climate regime, several climatic variables and agro-climatic indices describing the suitability of a particular area for grapevine production were calculated, after a statistical bias correction was applied to the daily temperature and precipitation data from EBU-POM outputs. Comparison between climatic variables and agro-climatic indices for the reference period 1961-1990 and predicted values for the 2001-2030 period (under the SRES A1B scenario) and the 2071-2100 period (under the SRES A2 scenario) was made for 18 climatological stations placed mostly within, but also outside traditional viticultural regions. According to the obtained change trends it is likely that no significant disturbances in Serbian viticulture will occur over the next few decades, but considerable changes are expected by the end of the 21st century. Warmer and prolonged growing season with greater heat accumulation and longer frost-free period with decline in frost frequency would likely affect the yield and ripening potential of grapes and induce shifts in varietal suitability and wine styles. Projected changes may bring on the need for additional vineyard irrigation, but also open up the possibility that marginal and elevated areas, previously too cool for cultivation of grapevines, become climatically suited for viticulture.", publisher = "Elsevier, Amsterdam", journal = "Agricultural and Forest Meteorology", title = "On the use of regional climate models: Implications of climate change for viticulture in Serbia", pages = "62-53", volume = "158", doi = "10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.02.004" }
Ruml, M., Vuković, A., Vujadinović, M., Djurdjević, V., Ranković-Vasić, Z., Atanacković, Z., Sivčev, B., Marković, N., Matijašević, S.,& Petrović, N.. (2012). On the use of regional climate models: Implications of climate change for viticulture in Serbia. in Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Elsevier, Amsterdam., 158, 53-62. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.02.004
Ruml M, Vuković A, Vujadinović M, Djurdjević V, Ranković-Vasić Z, Atanacković Z, Sivčev B, Marković N, Matijašević S, Petrović N. On the use of regional climate models: Implications of climate change for viticulture in Serbia. in Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 2012;158:53-62. doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.02.004 .
Ruml, Mirjana, Vuković, Ana, Vujadinović, Mirjam, Djurdjević, Vladimir, Ranković-Vasić, Zorica, Atanacković, Zoran, Sivčev, Branislava, Marković, Nebojša, Matijašević, Saša, Petrović, Nevena, "On the use of regional climate models: Implications of climate change for viticulture in Serbia" in Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 158 (2012):53-62, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.02.004 . .