Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Water Requirements of Orchards in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Abstract

In agriculture, climate change will have the strongest impact on orcharding, due to the length of the growing season. High temperatures, droughts and more intense solar radiation could burn leaves and fruits, which would impair the quality and marketable yield. On the other hand, heavy rains, if they occur during the period of flowering and maturing, especially of cherries and berries (strawberries, blackberries, raspberries), would result in the spread of fungi, rotting of fruit and delayed picking. In this regard, the objective of the paper is to assess the extent to which climate change will affect the availability of water in traditional, rainfed orchards, as well as to promote adaptation initiatives. The CROPWAT 8.0 model was used to analyze water surplus and shortage. Input climate data pertained to a reference period and SRES climate scenarios A1B, A2 and RCP 8.5 applied to three characteristic climatic areas in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Analyses showed that water surplus would occur regularly in the colder part of the year, in each study area and by all scenarios. All study areas would also experience water shortages in summer, but with varying drought duration and severity. Adaptation measures are proposed for each study area and period of the year, such as the need for drainage in winter, irrigation in summer and application of new technologies for growing fruit trees.