The influence of diesel fuel price on economic efficiency of specialized family crop farms

Abstract

Bearing in mind the increasing price of diesel fuel, it is necessary to determine its effect on the production of family farms as main factors of agricultural production in Serbia. First of all, it is necessary to pay attention to the farms specializing in crop production because the price of diesel fuel has the biggest influence on economic effects of their production. In order to achieve this goal, the model of a family crop farm was used in this paper. This model was used to determine how the change of diesel fuel market price influences the change of efficiency ratio of the total farm production. Calculations were made for production with subsidies and without them, as well as for two initial presumptions - when the sowing structure of farm was not optimized and when it was. Besides forming models and optimization of production structure, method of sensitive analysis was also used in the paper, starting with a premise that market price of fuel fluctuates in the interval reflecting changes that occur in practice. It was determined by analysis that without optimization of the sowing structure, family farm businesses were economically efficient only with government subsidies. On the other hand, on condition that optimal sowing structure was used, production is economically efficient even without subsidies, except for the case with maximized presupposed fuel price. Ratio of economical efficiency in corn production (as the most important crop in the sowing structure of a family farm) for different yields and corn price with presupposed increase of fuel price was also analyzed in the paper.

Imajući u vidu trend rasta cena dizel goriva, neophodno je utvrditi na koji način će se to odraziti na poslovanje porodičnih poljoprivrednih gazdinstava, kao nosilaca poljoprivredne proizvodnje u Srbiji. U prvom redu, pažnju je neophodno usmeriti na gazdinstva koja su specijalizovana za ratarsku proizvodnju, pošto je kod njih prisutan najveći uticaj cena dizel goriva na ekonomske efekte poslovanja. Da bi se ovaj cilj ostvario u radu je korišćen model porodičnog gazdinstva ratarskog tipa. Na ovom modelu je utvrđeno kako promena nabavne cene dizel goriva utiče na promenu koeficijenta ekonomičnosti poslovanja čitavog gazdinstva. Proračuni su izvedeni za uslove sa i bez subvencija, kao i za dve polazne pretpostavke - kada struktura setve gazdinstva nije optimalna, kao i kada je urađena optimizacija. U radu je pored formiranja modela i optimizacije proizvodne strukture korišćena i metoda senzitivne analize, pri čemu se pošlo od pretpostavke da nabavna cena pogonskog goriva varira u intervalu koji odražava promene do kojih dolazi u praksi. Analizom je utvrđeno da je u uslovima bez optimizacije strukture setve poslovanje gazdinstva ekonomično samo ako se koriste subvencije. Sa druge strane, ukoliko se primenjuje optimalna setvena struktura poslovanje je ekonomično i bez subvencija, osim u slučaju maksimalno pretpostavljenih cena goriva. U radu je analiziran i koeficijent ekonomičnosti u proizvodnji kukuruza (kao najvažnijeg useva u strukturi setve porodičnog gazdinstva) za različite prinose i cene kukuruza, pri pretpostavljenom rastu cena dizel goriva.