Impact of climate change on yield, irrigation requirements and water productivity of maize cultivated under the moderate continental climate of Bosnia and Herzegovina
Само за регистроване кориснике
2018
Чланак у часопису (Објављена верзија)
Метаподаци
Приказ свих података о документуАпстракт
In the past 20 years, extreme weather events (atypical variations of temperature and precipitation in space and time) have increased in Bosnia and Herzegovina, the consequences being significant material damage and decreased crop yields. The aims of the current paper were to investigate the impact of climate change on yield, irrigation requirements and water productivity of maize grown in one of the most important agricultural regions of the country. It used the results of projections of the EBU-POM regional climate model (Eta Belgrade University - Princeton Ocean Model) for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B, A2 and A1B > carbon dioxide (CO2), A2 > CO2 for the 2020s (2010-2039), the 2050s (2040-2069) and the 2080s (2070-2099), and it compared them with the reference period (1961-1990) using measured and modelled data. AquaCrop was calibrated for the study area using data from experimental studies. The model was applied... in simulations of future cultivation scenarios considering different irrigation regimes and variations in precipitation, temperature, CO2 concentration and sowing date. The results of simulations indicate that in the 2020s, there will be no significant changes in irrigation needs and yield due to the earlier sowing date and overall shifting of the growing season early in spring. A slightly larger negative impact of climate change will occur by the 2050s and a larger one by the 2080s due to a reduction in precipitation in the summer months. Compared with the reference period, in the 2080s, irrigation requirements are expected to increase by almost 100% (from 100 to 200 mm) and to provide up to 30% greater yield. In the future, water productivity of maize will remain high and will be even greater than current levels for both rainfed and irrigated cultivation due to anticipation and shortening of the growing season, reduction in crop evapotranspiration and increase in CO2 concentration. Due to an increase in precipitation in early spring and its reduction in the May-June period, the blue-to-green water ratio will increase in the future with positive environmental connotations. The productive use of blue water will also increase.
Извор:
Journal of Agricultural Science, 2018, 156, 5, 618-627Издавач:
- Cambridge Univ Press, New York
DOI: 10.1017/S0021859617000557
ISSN: 0021-8596
WoS: 000458503500004
Scopus: 2-s2.0-85060237551
Институција/група
Poljoprivredni fakultetTY - JOUR AU - Stričević, Ružica AU - Stojaković, N. AU - Vujadinović-Mandić, Mirjam AU - Todorović, M. PY - 2018 UR - http://aspace.agrif.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/4683 AB - In the past 20 years, extreme weather events (atypical variations of temperature and precipitation in space and time) have increased in Bosnia and Herzegovina, the consequences being significant material damage and decreased crop yields. The aims of the current paper were to investigate the impact of climate change on yield, irrigation requirements and water productivity of maize grown in one of the most important agricultural regions of the country. It used the results of projections of the EBU-POM regional climate model (Eta Belgrade University - Princeton Ocean Model) for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B, A2 and A1B > carbon dioxide (CO2), A2 > CO2 for the 2020s (2010-2039), the 2050s (2040-2069) and the 2080s (2070-2099), and it compared them with the reference period (1961-1990) using measured and modelled data. AquaCrop was calibrated for the study area using data from experimental studies. The model was applied in simulations of future cultivation scenarios considering different irrigation regimes and variations in precipitation, temperature, CO2 concentration and sowing date. The results of simulations indicate that in the 2020s, there will be no significant changes in irrigation needs and yield due to the earlier sowing date and overall shifting of the growing season early in spring. A slightly larger negative impact of climate change will occur by the 2050s and a larger one by the 2080s due to a reduction in precipitation in the summer months. Compared with the reference period, in the 2080s, irrigation requirements are expected to increase by almost 100% (from 100 to 200 mm) and to provide up to 30% greater yield. In the future, water productivity of maize will remain high and will be even greater than current levels for both rainfed and irrigated cultivation due to anticipation and shortening of the growing season, reduction in crop evapotranspiration and increase in CO2 concentration. Due to an increase in precipitation in early spring and its reduction in the May-June period, the blue-to-green water ratio will increase in the future with positive environmental connotations. The productive use of blue water will also increase. PB - Cambridge Univ Press, New York T2 - Journal of Agricultural Science T1 - Impact of climate change on yield, irrigation requirements and water productivity of maize cultivated under the moderate continental climate of Bosnia and Herzegovina EP - 627 IS - 5 SP - 618 VL - 156 DO - 10.1017/S0021859617000557 ER -
@article{ author = "Stričević, Ružica and Stojaković, N. and Vujadinović-Mandić, Mirjam and Todorović, M.", year = "2018", abstract = "In the past 20 years, extreme weather events (atypical variations of temperature and precipitation in space and time) have increased in Bosnia and Herzegovina, the consequences being significant material damage and decreased crop yields. The aims of the current paper were to investigate the impact of climate change on yield, irrigation requirements and water productivity of maize grown in one of the most important agricultural regions of the country. It used the results of projections of the EBU-POM regional climate model (Eta Belgrade University - Princeton Ocean Model) for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B, A2 and A1B > carbon dioxide (CO2), A2 > CO2 for the 2020s (2010-2039), the 2050s (2040-2069) and the 2080s (2070-2099), and it compared them with the reference period (1961-1990) using measured and modelled data. AquaCrop was calibrated for the study area using data from experimental studies. The model was applied in simulations of future cultivation scenarios considering different irrigation regimes and variations in precipitation, temperature, CO2 concentration and sowing date. The results of simulations indicate that in the 2020s, there will be no significant changes in irrigation needs and yield due to the earlier sowing date and overall shifting of the growing season early in spring. A slightly larger negative impact of climate change will occur by the 2050s and a larger one by the 2080s due to a reduction in precipitation in the summer months. Compared with the reference period, in the 2080s, irrigation requirements are expected to increase by almost 100% (from 100 to 200 mm) and to provide up to 30% greater yield. In the future, water productivity of maize will remain high and will be even greater than current levels for both rainfed and irrigated cultivation due to anticipation and shortening of the growing season, reduction in crop evapotranspiration and increase in CO2 concentration. Due to an increase in precipitation in early spring and its reduction in the May-June period, the blue-to-green water ratio will increase in the future with positive environmental connotations. The productive use of blue water will also increase.", publisher = "Cambridge Univ Press, New York", journal = "Journal of Agricultural Science", title = "Impact of climate change on yield, irrigation requirements and water productivity of maize cultivated under the moderate continental climate of Bosnia and Herzegovina", pages = "627-618", number = "5", volume = "156", doi = "10.1017/S0021859617000557" }
Stričević, R., Stojaković, N., Vujadinović-Mandić, M.,& Todorović, M.. (2018). Impact of climate change on yield, irrigation requirements and water productivity of maize cultivated under the moderate continental climate of Bosnia and Herzegovina. in Journal of Agricultural Science Cambridge Univ Press, New York., 156(5), 618-627. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0021859617000557
Stričević R, Stojaković N, Vujadinović-Mandić M, Todorović M. Impact of climate change on yield, irrigation requirements and water productivity of maize cultivated under the moderate continental climate of Bosnia and Herzegovina. in Journal of Agricultural Science. 2018;156(5):618-627. doi:10.1017/S0021859617000557 .
Stričević, Ružica, Stojaković, N., Vujadinović-Mandić, Mirjam, Todorović, M., "Impact of climate change on yield, irrigation requirements and water productivity of maize cultivated under the moderate continental climate of Bosnia and Herzegovina" in Journal of Agricultural Science, 156, no. 5 (2018):618-627, https://doi.org/10.1017/S0021859617000557 . .