TY  - JOUR
AU  - Kavgić, M.
AU  - Mumović, D.
AU  - Summerfield, A.
AU  - Stevanović, Z.
AU  - Ećim-Djurić, Olivera
PY  - 2013
UR  - http://aspace.agrif.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/3282
AB  - This paper presents the development and evaluation of the Belgrade Domestic Energy Model (BEDEM) for predicting the energy consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions of the existing housing stock. The distribution of energy use in relation to the end use is estimated as: space heating, 71%; light and appliances, 15%; water heating, 9%; and cooking 5%, while the distribution of CO2 emissions is space heating, 59%; light and appliances, 22%; water heating, 13%; and cooking 6%. Local sensitivity analysis is carried out for dwellings of different type and year built, and the largest normalized sensitivity coefficients were calculated for parameters which almost exclusively influence space heating energy consumption in housing. For all input parameters under investigation, the effects of the input uncertainty were linear for a moderate range of input change (Delta x=+/- 10%) and superposable for a small range of input change (Delta x=+/- 1%). However, the non-linear and non-additive properties of some input parameters over the wider range hinder the development of a simple but reliable model for estimating energy and CO2 reductions. The findings show that the uncertainty in the stock models predictions can be large and more work is needed in the area of the predictive uncertainty of stock models.
PB  - Elsevier Science Sa, Lausanne
T2  - Energy and Buildings
T1  - Uncertainty and modeling energy consumption: Sensitivity analysis for a city-scale domestic energy model
EP  - 11
SP  - 1
VL  - 60
DO  - 10.1016/j.enbuild.2013.01.005
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Kavgić, M. and Mumović, D. and Summerfield, A. and Stevanović, Z. and Ećim-Djurić, Olivera",
year = "2013",
abstract = "This paper presents the development and evaluation of the Belgrade Domestic Energy Model (BEDEM) for predicting the energy consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions of the existing housing stock. The distribution of energy use in relation to the end use is estimated as: space heating, 71%; light and appliances, 15%; water heating, 9%; and cooking 5%, while the distribution of CO2 emissions is space heating, 59%; light and appliances, 22%; water heating, 13%; and cooking 6%. Local sensitivity analysis is carried out for dwellings of different type and year built, and the largest normalized sensitivity coefficients were calculated for parameters which almost exclusively influence space heating energy consumption in housing. For all input parameters under investigation, the effects of the input uncertainty were linear for a moderate range of input change (Delta x=+/- 10%) and superposable for a small range of input change (Delta x=+/- 1%). However, the non-linear and non-additive properties of some input parameters over the wider range hinder the development of a simple but reliable model for estimating energy and CO2 reductions. The findings show that the uncertainty in the stock models predictions can be large and more work is needed in the area of the predictive uncertainty of stock models.",
publisher = "Elsevier Science Sa, Lausanne",
journal = "Energy and Buildings",
title = "Uncertainty and modeling energy consumption: Sensitivity analysis for a city-scale domestic energy model",
pages = "11-1",
volume = "60",
doi = "10.1016/j.enbuild.2013.01.005"
}

Kavgić, M., Mumović, D., Summerfield, A., Stevanović, Z.,& Ećim-Djurić, O.. (2013). Uncertainty and modeling energy consumption: Sensitivity analysis for a city-scale domestic energy model. in Energy and Buildings
Elsevier Science Sa, Lausanne., 60, 1-11.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2013.01.005

Kavgić M, Mumović D, Summerfield A, Stevanović Z, Ećim-Djurić O. Uncertainty and modeling energy consumption: Sensitivity analysis for a city-scale domestic energy model. in Energy and Buildings. 2013;60:1-11.
doi:10.1016/j.enbuild.2013.01.005 .

Kavgić, M., Mumović, D., Summerfield, A., Stevanović, Z., Ećim-Djurić, Olivera, "Uncertainty and modeling energy consumption: Sensitivity analysis for a city-scale domestic energy model" in Energy and Buildings, 60 (2013):1-11,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2013.01.005 . .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Kavgić, M.
AU  - Mavrogianni, A.
AU  - Mumović, D.
AU  - Summerfield, A.
AU  - Dajić-Stevanović, Zora
AU  - Djurović-Petrović, M.
PY  - 2010
UR  - http://aspace.agrif.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/2393
AB  - Efficient and rational implementation of building stock CO(2) emission reduction strategies and policies requires the application of comprehensive building stock models that have the ability to: (a) estimate the baseline energy demand of the existing building stock, (b) explore the technical and economic effects of different CO(2) emission reduction strategies over time, including the impact of new technologies, and (c) to identify the effect of emission reduction strategies on indoor environmental quality. The aims of this paper are fourfold: (a) to briefly describe bottom-up and top-down methods and overview common bottom-up modelling techniques (statistical and building physics based), (b) to critically analyse the existing bottom-up building physics based residential energy models focusing on their purposes, strengths, and shortcomings, (c) to compare five building physics based bottom-up models focusing on the same building stock - UK case study, and (d) to identify the next generation of coupled energy-health bottom-up building stock models. This paper has identified three major issues which need to be addressed: a) the lack of publicly available detailed data relating to inputs and assumptions, as well as underlying algorithms, renders any attempt to reproduce their outcomes problematic, b) lack of data on the relative importance of input parameter variations on the predicted demand outputs, and c) uncertainty as to the socio-technical drivers of energy consumption - how people use energy and how they react to changes in their home as a result of energy conservation measures.
PB  - Pergamon-Elsevier Science Ltd, Oxford
T2  - Building and Environment
T1  - A review of bottom-up building stock models for energy consumption in the residential sector
EP  - 1697
IS  - 7
SP  - 1683
VL  - 45
DO  - 10.1016/j.buildenv.2010.01.021
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Kavgić, M. and Mavrogianni, A. and Mumović, D. and Summerfield, A. and Dajić-Stevanović, Zora and Djurović-Petrović, M.",
year = "2010",
abstract = "Efficient and rational implementation of building stock CO(2) emission reduction strategies and policies requires the application of comprehensive building stock models that have the ability to: (a) estimate the baseline energy demand of the existing building stock, (b) explore the technical and economic effects of different CO(2) emission reduction strategies over time, including the impact of new technologies, and (c) to identify the effect of emission reduction strategies on indoor environmental quality. The aims of this paper are fourfold: (a) to briefly describe bottom-up and top-down methods and overview common bottom-up modelling techniques (statistical and building physics based), (b) to critically analyse the existing bottom-up building physics based residential energy models focusing on their purposes, strengths, and shortcomings, (c) to compare five building physics based bottom-up models focusing on the same building stock - UK case study, and (d) to identify the next generation of coupled energy-health bottom-up building stock models. This paper has identified three major issues which need to be addressed: a) the lack of publicly available detailed data relating to inputs and assumptions, as well as underlying algorithms, renders any attempt to reproduce their outcomes problematic, b) lack of data on the relative importance of input parameter variations on the predicted demand outputs, and c) uncertainty as to the socio-technical drivers of energy consumption - how people use energy and how they react to changes in their home as a result of energy conservation measures.",
publisher = "Pergamon-Elsevier Science Ltd, Oxford",
journal = "Building and Environment",
title = "A review of bottom-up building stock models for energy consumption in the residential sector",
pages = "1697-1683",
number = "7",
volume = "45",
doi = "10.1016/j.buildenv.2010.01.021"
}

Kavgić, M., Mavrogianni, A., Mumović, D., Summerfield, A., Dajić-Stevanović, Z.,& Djurović-Petrović, M.. (2010). A review of bottom-up building stock models for energy consumption in the residential sector. in Building and Environment
Pergamon-Elsevier Science Ltd, Oxford., 45(7), 1683-1697.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.buildenv.2010.01.021

Kavgić M, Mavrogianni A, Mumović D, Summerfield A, Dajić-Stevanović Z, Djurović-Petrović M. A review of bottom-up building stock models for energy consumption in the residential sector. in Building and Environment. 2010;45(7):1683-1697.
doi:10.1016/j.buildenv.2010.01.021 .

Kavgić, M., Mavrogianni, A., Mumović, D., Summerfield, A., Dajić-Stevanović, Zora, Djurović-Petrović, M., "A review of bottom-up building stock models for energy consumption in the residential sector" in Building and Environment, 45, no. 7 (2010):1683-1697,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.buildenv.2010.01.021 . .