TY  - JOUR
AU  - Kavgić, M.
AU  - Mumović, D.
AU  - Summerfield, A.
AU  - Stevanović, Z.
AU  - Ećim-Djurić, Olivera
PY  - 2013
UR  - http://aspace.agrif.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/3282
AB  - This paper presents the development and evaluation of the Belgrade Domestic Energy Model (BEDEM) for predicting the energy consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions of the existing housing stock. The distribution of energy use in relation to the end use is estimated as: space heating, 71%; light and appliances, 15%; water heating, 9%; and cooking 5%, while the distribution of CO2 emissions is space heating, 59%; light and appliances, 22%; water heating, 13%; and cooking 6%. Local sensitivity analysis is carried out for dwellings of different type and year built, and the largest normalized sensitivity coefficients were calculated for parameters which almost exclusively influence space heating energy consumption in housing. For all input parameters under investigation, the effects of the input uncertainty were linear for a moderate range of input change (Delta x=+/- 10%) and superposable for a small range of input change (Delta x=+/- 1%). However, the non-linear and non-additive properties of some input parameters over the wider range hinder the development of a simple but reliable model for estimating energy and CO2 reductions. The findings show that the uncertainty in the stock models predictions can be large and more work is needed in the area of the predictive uncertainty of stock models.
PB  - Elsevier Science Sa, Lausanne
T2  - Energy and Buildings
T1  - Uncertainty and modeling energy consumption: Sensitivity analysis for a city-scale domestic energy model
EP  - 11
SP  - 1
VL  - 60
DO  - 10.1016/j.enbuild.2013.01.005
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Kavgić, M. and Mumović, D. and Summerfield, A. and Stevanović, Z. and Ećim-Djurić, Olivera",
year = "2013",
abstract = "This paper presents the development and evaluation of the Belgrade Domestic Energy Model (BEDEM) for predicting the energy consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions of the existing housing stock. The distribution of energy use in relation to the end use is estimated as: space heating, 71%; light and appliances, 15%; water heating, 9%; and cooking 5%, while the distribution of CO2 emissions is space heating, 59%; light and appliances, 22%; water heating, 13%; and cooking 6%. Local sensitivity analysis is carried out for dwellings of different type and year built, and the largest normalized sensitivity coefficients were calculated for parameters which almost exclusively influence space heating energy consumption in housing. For all input parameters under investigation, the effects of the input uncertainty were linear for a moderate range of input change (Delta x=+/- 10%) and superposable for a small range of input change (Delta x=+/- 1%). However, the non-linear and non-additive properties of some input parameters over the wider range hinder the development of a simple but reliable model for estimating energy and CO2 reductions. The findings show that the uncertainty in the stock models predictions can be large and more work is needed in the area of the predictive uncertainty of stock models.",
publisher = "Elsevier Science Sa, Lausanne",
journal = "Energy and Buildings",
title = "Uncertainty and modeling energy consumption: Sensitivity analysis for a city-scale domestic energy model",
pages = "11-1",
volume = "60",
doi = "10.1016/j.enbuild.2013.01.005"
}

Kavgić, M., Mumović, D., Summerfield, A., Stevanović, Z.,& Ećim-Djurić, O.. (2013). Uncertainty and modeling energy consumption: Sensitivity analysis for a city-scale domestic energy model. in Energy and Buildings
Elsevier Science Sa, Lausanne., 60, 1-11.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2013.01.005

Kavgić M, Mumović D, Summerfield A, Stevanović Z, Ećim-Djurić O. Uncertainty and modeling energy consumption: Sensitivity analysis for a city-scale domestic energy model. in Energy and Buildings. 2013;60:1-11.
doi:10.1016/j.enbuild.2013.01.005 .

Kavgić, M., Mumović, D., Summerfield, A., Stevanović, Z., Ećim-Djurić, Olivera, "Uncertainty and modeling energy consumption: Sensitivity analysis for a city-scale domestic energy model" in Energy and Buildings, 60 (2013):1-11,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2013.01.005 . .

TY  - CONF
AU  - Turanjanin, V.
AU  - Ećim-Djurić, Olivera
AU  - Vučićević, B.
AU  - Kavgić, M.
AU  - Jovanović, M.
PY  - 2011
UR  - http://aspace.agrif.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/2440
AB  - This paper presents heat consumption optimization and possibility to increase energy efficiency of Belgrade residential buildings. Residential buildings were selected according to the year of construction and type of building (multi apartment buildings and single family houses). Numerical simulation was applied to investigate heat consumption of buildings' zero model which represents buildings' current state. Numerical simulations were performed for typical meteorological year conditions for Belgrade city area. In this calculation, building surroundings, outside heat transfer coefficient (which depends on local weather conditions) and inside heat transfer coefficient (according to the type of walls) were taken in account. The validation of zero model is based on measured and calculated inside air temperature in considered objects. The influence of improved building envelope on heat consumption, compared to building zero model, was investigated by adding insulation and/or by replacement existing windows with those with better thermal characteristics. The energy consumption was numerically simulated over whole heating season. The energy efficiency increase calculations showed possibility for saving heating energy from 10% to 80%. This conclusion was obtained by comparing four different scenarios of improved building envelope with basic zero model for four modeling objects (two multi apartment buildings and two single family houses). Results indicate that focus of energy savings should be on how to decrease energy consumption in households sector. Additionally, solar energy use for two different objects (PV cells were applied for multi apartment building and solar thermal collectors for single family house) was numerically simulated.
PB  - 24th International Conference on Efficiency, Cost, Optimization, Simulation and Environmental Impact of Energy Systems, ECOS 2011
C3  - Proceedings of the 24th International Conference on Efficiency, Cost, Optimization, Simulation and E
T1  - Numerical simulation of energy consumption optimization in residential buildings in Belgrade
EP  - 3424
SP  - 3415
UR  - https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_agrospace_2440
ER  - 

@conference{
author = "Turanjanin, V. and Ećim-Djurić, Olivera and Vučićević, B. and Kavgić, M. and Jovanović, M.",
year = "2011",
abstract = "This paper presents heat consumption optimization and possibility to increase energy efficiency of Belgrade residential buildings. Residential buildings were selected according to the year of construction and type of building (multi apartment buildings and single family houses). Numerical simulation was applied to investigate heat consumption of buildings' zero model which represents buildings' current state. Numerical simulations were performed for typical meteorological year conditions for Belgrade city area. In this calculation, building surroundings, outside heat transfer coefficient (which depends on local weather conditions) and inside heat transfer coefficient (according to the type of walls) were taken in account. The validation of zero model is based on measured and calculated inside air temperature in considered objects. The influence of improved building envelope on heat consumption, compared to building zero model, was investigated by adding insulation and/or by replacement existing windows with those with better thermal characteristics. The energy consumption was numerically simulated over whole heating season. The energy efficiency increase calculations showed possibility for saving heating energy from 10% to 80%. This conclusion was obtained by comparing four different scenarios of improved building envelope with basic zero model for four modeling objects (two multi apartment buildings and two single family houses). Results indicate that focus of energy savings should be on how to decrease energy consumption in households sector. Additionally, solar energy use for two different objects (PV cells were applied for multi apartment building and solar thermal collectors for single family house) was numerically simulated.",
publisher = "24th International Conference on Efficiency, Cost, Optimization, Simulation and Environmental Impact of Energy Systems, ECOS 2011",
journal = "Proceedings of the 24th International Conference on Efficiency, Cost, Optimization, Simulation and E",
title = "Numerical simulation of energy consumption optimization in residential buildings in Belgrade",
pages = "3424-3415",
url = "https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_agrospace_2440"
}

Turanjanin, V., Ećim-Djurić, O., Vučićević, B., Kavgić, M.,& Jovanović, M.. (2011). Numerical simulation of energy consumption optimization in residential buildings in Belgrade. in Proceedings of the 24th International Conference on Efficiency, Cost, Optimization, Simulation and E
24th International Conference on Efficiency, Cost, Optimization, Simulation and Environmental Impact of Energy Systems, ECOS 2011., 3415-3424.
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_agrospace_2440

Turanjanin V, Ećim-Djurić O, Vučićević B, Kavgić M, Jovanović M. Numerical simulation of energy consumption optimization in residential buildings in Belgrade. in Proceedings of the 24th International Conference on Efficiency, Cost, Optimization, Simulation and E. 2011;:3415-3424.
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_agrospace_2440 .

Turanjanin, V., Ećim-Djurić, Olivera, Vučićević, B., Kavgić, M., Jovanović, M., "Numerical simulation of energy consumption optimization in residential buildings in Belgrade" in Proceedings of the 24th International Conference on Efficiency, Cost, Optimization, Simulation and E (2011):3415-3424,
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_agrospace_2440 .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Kavgić, M.
AU  - Mavrogianni, A.
AU  - Mumović, D.
AU  - Summerfield, A.
AU  - Dajić-Stevanović, Zora
AU  - Djurović-Petrović, M.
PY  - 2010
UR  - http://aspace.agrif.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/2393
AB  - Efficient and rational implementation of building stock CO(2) emission reduction strategies and policies requires the application of comprehensive building stock models that have the ability to: (a) estimate the baseline energy demand of the existing building stock, (b) explore the technical and economic effects of different CO(2) emission reduction strategies over time, including the impact of new technologies, and (c) to identify the effect of emission reduction strategies on indoor environmental quality. The aims of this paper are fourfold: (a) to briefly describe bottom-up and top-down methods and overview common bottom-up modelling techniques (statistical and building physics based), (b) to critically analyse the existing bottom-up building physics based residential energy models focusing on their purposes, strengths, and shortcomings, (c) to compare five building physics based bottom-up models focusing on the same building stock - UK case study, and (d) to identify the next generation of coupled energy-health bottom-up building stock models. This paper has identified three major issues which need to be addressed: a) the lack of publicly available detailed data relating to inputs and assumptions, as well as underlying algorithms, renders any attempt to reproduce their outcomes problematic, b) lack of data on the relative importance of input parameter variations on the predicted demand outputs, and c) uncertainty as to the socio-technical drivers of energy consumption - how people use energy and how they react to changes in their home as a result of energy conservation measures.
PB  - Pergamon-Elsevier Science Ltd, Oxford
T2  - Building and Environment
T1  - A review of bottom-up building stock models for energy consumption in the residential sector
EP  - 1697
IS  - 7
SP  - 1683
VL  - 45
DO  - 10.1016/j.buildenv.2010.01.021
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Kavgić, M. and Mavrogianni, A. and Mumović, D. and Summerfield, A. and Dajić-Stevanović, Zora and Djurović-Petrović, M.",
year = "2010",
abstract = "Efficient and rational implementation of building stock CO(2) emission reduction strategies and policies requires the application of comprehensive building stock models that have the ability to: (a) estimate the baseline energy demand of the existing building stock, (b) explore the technical and economic effects of different CO(2) emission reduction strategies over time, including the impact of new technologies, and (c) to identify the effect of emission reduction strategies on indoor environmental quality. The aims of this paper are fourfold: (a) to briefly describe bottom-up and top-down methods and overview common bottom-up modelling techniques (statistical and building physics based), (b) to critically analyse the existing bottom-up building physics based residential energy models focusing on their purposes, strengths, and shortcomings, (c) to compare five building physics based bottom-up models focusing on the same building stock - UK case study, and (d) to identify the next generation of coupled energy-health bottom-up building stock models. This paper has identified three major issues which need to be addressed: a) the lack of publicly available detailed data relating to inputs and assumptions, as well as underlying algorithms, renders any attempt to reproduce their outcomes problematic, b) lack of data on the relative importance of input parameter variations on the predicted demand outputs, and c) uncertainty as to the socio-technical drivers of energy consumption - how people use energy and how they react to changes in their home as a result of energy conservation measures.",
publisher = "Pergamon-Elsevier Science Ltd, Oxford",
journal = "Building and Environment",
title = "A review of bottom-up building stock models for energy consumption in the residential sector",
pages = "1697-1683",
number = "7",
volume = "45",
doi = "10.1016/j.buildenv.2010.01.021"
}

Kavgić, M., Mavrogianni, A., Mumović, D., Summerfield, A., Dajić-Stevanović, Z.,& Djurović-Petrović, M.. (2010). A review of bottom-up building stock models for energy consumption in the residential sector. in Building and Environment
Pergamon-Elsevier Science Ltd, Oxford., 45(7), 1683-1697.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.buildenv.2010.01.021

Kavgić M, Mavrogianni A, Mumović D, Summerfield A, Dajić-Stevanović Z, Djurović-Petrović M. A review of bottom-up building stock models for energy consumption in the residential sector. in Building and Environment. 2010;45(7):1683-1697.
doi:10.1016/j.buildenv.2010.01.021 .

Kavgić, M., Mavrogianni, A., Mumović, D., Summerfield, A., Dajić-Stevanović, Zora, Djurović-Petrović, M., "A review of bottom-up building stock models for energy consumption in the residential sector" in Building and Environment, 45, no. 7 (2010):1683-1697,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.buildenv.2010.01.021 . .